Looking at the Mercer Bears’ Future

Any basketball team that graduates 71 percent of its scoring and all five starters is supposed to have trouble scoring the next season. In fact, most would see this as a rebuilding year for that program. For a major college basketball program (read: ACC or Big Ten-type schools), you would see a genuine step back. Most programs can’t have that kind of a hit without serious repercussions to both the finances and recruiting of the organization. That being said, you probably haven’t met the Mercer Bears under Bob Hoffman.

My love affair with the plucky, indefatigable Mercer Bears began on November 10, 2007. That was the night Mark Slonaker’s Bears went into the Galen Center and stunned O.J. Mayo and the USC Trojans. Being a senior in high school whom Mercer had contacted about attending there the next year, I was definitely stunned the small school had beaten a team that was predicted to do quite well that year. I won’t say that it helped me pick Mercer over the other schools I was accepted to, but knowing that we were somewhat competitive in a sport I loved was a major bonus for me.

In the end, Slonaker wasn’t brought back the next year. A new coach, one with an extensive background that had both succeeded at lower levels and been suspected of NCAA violations as a member of Kelvin Sampson’s Oklahoma staff, was taking over. I daresay that no one saw the upward trajectory of the past seven years coming. Bob Hoffman has ushered in an era of living and dying by the three-pointer alongside heavy work ethic, one that has every player accountable for one another. I’ve never gone into a game where I have felt we were terribly outmatched, even following the graduation of guys like James Florence and Daniel Emerson in 2010. Hence, Mercer might have graduated nearly three-quarters of their scoring from the team that stunned Duke in their own backyard, but the players that remain are not slouches by any stretch.

The problem with the 2014-2015 Mercer Bears is not one of lowered expectations or poor playing. The problem lies in the “secret” being gone. After three consecutive years of postseason play, the Mercer Bears are now a household name for anyone who’s a fan of college basketball. While a berth in the NCAA tournament isn’t as likely as last year’s anointed squad of seniors, that doesn’t mean anyone counts them out. Even following the magical CIT Championship run in 2012 and shock of Tennessee in the 2013 NIT, there were still major questions and nonbelievers of Hoffman’s Mercer Bears outside of the Atlantic Sun Conference.

So what were we going to expect from the Bears this year? A complete collapse? Any real expert of the sport saw Mercer’s shift to the Southern Conference as a key saving grace. North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, and USC Upstate were all on upward trajectories in the Atlantic Sun. The SoCon lost two of their best basketball programs in Davidson and Elon as Mercer entered with fellow conference foe East Tennessee State University. The only real threats that remained were Chattanooga and Wofford, which are the two that have a combined record of 3-1 against the Bears this year. We should add that Mercer also matched up poorly with Western Carolina, dropping both games with the Catamounts in close games. Those are two that Mercer should have won, especially if they wanted to push for the top seed.

Mercer brought back several key members of the rotation from the group that captured the nation’s heart in Ike Nwamu, Darious Moten, and TJ Hallice. Going into the SoCon Quarterfinal with VMI (Virginia Military Institute), the Bears’ main three combine for just 53 percent of the total scoring. Clearly, Hoffman had the right guys in place to make sure there wasn’t a complete letdown. While overall scoring is down this year for the Bears, the overall message of unselfish basketball and spreading the floor has remained. Going 11-1 against the bottom six teams in the conference helps show that the Bears are sticking together and getting through games where they are ripe for a letdown.

While my heart has felt some serious pain from the rough 5-8 record the Bears had in non-conference play, they’ve played some very good teams and kept it close against many. I can tell that the Bears are just gearing up for another eventual tournament run under Bob Hoffman. The players play for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. You won’t see any one-and-dones here in Macon, because Bob Hoffman builds for the long haul.

Therefore, when most expected 2015 to be a rebuilding year, many of us felt that Hoffman wouldn’t have the Bears in real shape to contend for a SoCon title. Surprisingly, if the Bears hadn’t gone 3-3 in their final six games, they would have won a share of the title, guaranteeing an NIT berth (assuming they won all six games). Luckily, the Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to miss the killer first day of the SoCon basketball tourney, which would have forced four games in four days…a literal death sentence for any team that wants to win the whole thing. No team in recent history has won the SoCon tournament after playing four in four.

The real problem for the Bears this week is the possible 1-4 matchup of Wofford and Western Carolina. The Bears cannot seem to close the door on the Terriers this season, and it has helped lead to both losses by a combined seven points. Meanwhile, the Bears lost to the aforementioned Catamounts by a combined twelve points. Mercer will have to break the duck against either one of these teams if they hope to return to the big dance.

My prediction is that the Mercer Bears win their first game against VMI. I also think they’ll upset Chattanooga in the semifinal, who will be looking ahead. That being said, the Bears will probably fall short against the Wofford/Western Carolina loser. Unfortunately, the combined record of 0-4 against those two doesn’t speak much to the chances of the Bears on Monday night in Asheville. This should put the Bears into the CIT Championship for the first time since 2012, when they went on a miracle run against teams like Utah State and Old Dominion in the first year of “I Believe.” I really do hope the Bears prove me wrong and punch their ticket to the Big Dance, but it’s a significantly more daunting task this year in SoCon than last year in the Atlantic Sun.

In essence, this should lead to a much tougher 2015-2016 for the Bears. Wofford will lose some star power, but Chattanooga should still be loaded for a big run, probably their best shot in Men’s Basketball for some time. The Bears should only lose TJ and Darious, but the emergence of Jibri Bryan and Jordan Strawberry this year have shown that the future is still very bright under Bob Hoffman. The Bears should return to the Big Dance at some point in the next three years, but it’s going to be very similar to the years following the departure of Belmont from the Atlantic Sun as ETSU got weaker…there is no clear favorite in my mind as to who punches their ticket in Asheville in 2016.

In the meantime, go Bears! Beat the Keydets on Saturday! I’d love to see a Ike Nwamu dunk end up on the SportsCenter Top Ten to remind everyone of where their favorite team to beat Duke is at!